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Bullish Cartel
Publication date: 20 August 2026
Supersedes: Mid-Week Market Update, 19 August 2026
Monitoring horizon: Four-hour, reviewed weekly
A policy change, and a correction we are making openly
On 19 August the US Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its long-end liquidity-support buyback operations, from US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion per operation, in the 10-to-20 and 20-to-30 year sectors, effective 9 September through 4 November. Long yields fell, the dollar weakened, and precious metals reversed the week's decline.
Every level below has been remarked on the four-hour charts following that announcement. Several of the previous levels sat too close to price after the move to tell us anything.
Before the levels, a correction. The gold levels published in the 17 August review were marked on COMEX gold futures. Our monitoring feed evaluates spot gold, XAU/USD. On the day, futures traded roughly US$55 above spot — enough that a level could be crossed on one instrument and untouched on the other.
No member had subscribed to those levels, and no alert was ever sent on them. We are saying it anyway, because a level marked on one instrument and watched on another is not a level. It is two different claims wearing the same number.
All Bullish Cartel levels are now marked on spot — XAU/USD and XAG/USD. The superseded levels remain on record with the date and the reason, as every level we have set does.
Gold — spot XAU/USD
Level | What it would tell us |
|---|---|
4,844.400 | Sustained acceptance above confirms breakout continuation |
4,590.674 | Sustained acceptance above resolves the consolidation higher |
4,229.820 | A sustained break below indicates the consolidation is deeper than a pause |
4,066.308 | A sustained loss means the structural support marked here is no longer intact |
Gold traded to roughly US$4,495 on the announcement, its highest since early June. The upper level sits close to price. That is the market's doing, not a narrowing of the band — the level was marked where the structure sits, and price moved toward it.
Silver — spot XAG/USD
Level | What it would tell us |
|---|---|
71.5472 | Sustained acceptance above confirms breakout continuation |
68.0152 | Sustained acceptance above re-establishes the prior structure |
61.4922 | A sustained break below indicates the decline is more than positioning |
59.6353 | A sustained loss means the structure marked here has failed |
Silver carries the same number of levels as gold this week, having previously carried more. The levels that were removed had been overtaken by the move rather than proven wrong.
WTI Oil — a cost input, not a view on oil
Level | What it would tell us |
|---|---|
91.00 | Elevated energy cost pressure for miners |
87.25 | Energy cost pressure for miners |
78.38 | Energy costs easing — constructive for metals producers |
73.10 | Strongly constructive for metals producers |
The lower two levels are unchanged from the previous review. Oil is carried here only because diesel, power and transport sit inside every miner's cost base. A cost-input reading, not a view on oil.
Operating environment — context only, not governed levels
These are watched, not alerted on. On these two charts the colour convention is inverted: levels we would want price to reach are the ones that ease pressure on metals.
US Dollar Index — headwind at 100.834 and 99.854; easing at 98.398, 97.852 and 97.252. The index sat near 98.87 after the announcement.
US 2-Year Yield — headwind at 4.256% and 4.214%; easing at 4.135% and 4.102%. The 2-year sat near 4.190%.
One thing to watch rather than conclude from. The 2-year yield edged higher on the same session the dollar edged lower. Both moves were small enough to be noise. But higher short-term yields usually pull a currency up, and when they stop doing that, the market is discounting the yield rather than rewarding it. We are noting it as a place to look, not as evidence.
What we are watching next
The 9 September buyback operation is the first measurable test. Between 19 May and 28 July, holders offered US$145.5 billion of long-dated securities into operations with US$14 billion of combined capacity, and Treasury bought the full amount every time. If offers again arrive at multiples of the cap even after it doubles, the demand to exit duration is deeper than the programme. If they fall toward the new cap, the earlier oversubscription was a capacity limit rather than a queue.
The full analysis of the announcement, including what it is not, is in the accompanying research report.
The Bullish Cartel thought
Whilst overall environment is constructive, we continue to watch with a close eye on oil and the DXY as it could impact short term volatility in miner sector although economics remain strongly supportive for the sector!
#STAYBULLISH